Search by Popular Categories


  • Consumer

  • Commercial

  • Construction

  • Industrial

  • Oil & Gas

  • DIAMOND SPONSOR

OIL AND GAS NEWS

Natural gas investments to hit $8.7trn by 2050

Mar 1, 2022 11:52 AM

Natural gas can become the fuel of choice in satisfying the growing world energy needs addressing climate change and improving air quality says the GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050. Total upstream and midstream...

Natural gas can become the fuel of choice in satisfying the growing world energy needs, addressing climate change and improving air quality, says the GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050. Total upstream and midstream investments will reach a hefty $8.7 trillion, it says.
 
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum's (GECF) comprehensive report on the status of natural gas up to 2050 predicts the share of natural gas in the energy mix will increase from 23% today to 27% by 2050.  
 
Global energy demand will rise by 29% over the next three decades, with the majority of that increase emanating from growing economies in Asia Pacific and Africa, it says.
 
The outlook expects the Middle East will deliver 32% of the global gas supply increase and sees a growing role for deepwater and unconventional resources.
 
In his overview of new-edition of the outlook, Eng Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General of the GECF, highlighted the continued prominence of natural gas in various energy outlooks and pathways.  
 
Hamel said: “The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 underscores that investment in natural gas is critical for the stability of global energy systems. It projects that by 2050, total upstream and midstream investments will reach a hefty $ 8.7 trillion.”
 
“Environmental policies are a key driver of the projections contained in the Outlook. In this context, whilst upholding that natural gas is the cleanest of hydrocarbon fuels, the Outlook explores the state of technologies that will make it even cleaner.”
 
The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 is the flagship publication of the association of 19 countries, who together represent 71% of the world’s proven gas reserves, 43% of its marketed production, 52% of pipeline, and 58% of LNG exports in the world. 
 
The Outlook is based on a proprietary GECF Global Gas Model. 
 
Population growth and urbanisation will be the main drivers of future energy trends, it says. The global population is set to rise from 7.8 billion in 2020 to 9.7 billion by 2050, which will create upward pressure on energy demand. Almost all of these additional two billion people will live in urban areas. Just the two regions of Africa and Asia Pacific alone will add 90% of total population in the coming 30 years. Of this, 60%  of the growth will come from Africa.
 
Global GDP growth will average 2.7% per annum in real terms to 2050. The majority - over three fourth - of the global real economic growth will be attributed to labour productivity up to 2050, while the rest will be on account of population growth, the study says.
 
Long-term growth will largely come from the expansion of developing economies, especially in Asia. The Asia Pacific region will be at the frontier of economic growth, contributing 60% of global real GDP growth over 2021–2050, with developing South and Southeast Asia leading the way.
 
Natural gas is a fundamental pillar of the energy mix and continues to receive policy support in major consuming countries, it says.
 
Since the publication of the previous GGO in 2021, pledges and commitments to achieve carbon neutrality have expanded substantially, driven by governments and companies as well as by other stakeholders, including financial institutions and non-governmental organisations.
 
Gas continues to receive policy backing across many parts of the world, especially as a substitute for coal and a complement to renewables. However, its role is increasingly being challenged by developed economies and blocs, such as the EU, US and Japan.
 
Despite aggressive decarbonisation actions under the EU’s proposed ‘Fit for 55’ package, natural gas is still seen as having a future in the Union, especially for lending balance to the power system and displacing coal in several central and eastern European countries.
 
Coal is under increasing pressure while renewables are growing under technical constraints, the study finds.  Many regions have revised their renewables and energy efficiency targets upwards, but a combination of technical and economic challenges, for instance, integration issues and the impact of Covid-19 could hinder the achievement of these goals.
 
There exists a real need to promote energy options that achieve the right balance between post-Covid-19 economic and social requirements and environment-related constraints. In this context, natural gas and renewables will lead the way towards a balanced energy transition and will grow substantially up to 2050, together accounting for more than 90% of the incremental rise in global energy demand, the study says.
 
Natural gas will come out on top in the global energy mix, raising its share to 27% by 2050, and will be one of the global enablers for reducing emissions uninterruptedly and steadfastly by replacing carbon-intensive fuels and backing up intermittent renewables, it forecasts.
 
Global natural gas demand will rise by 46% from 3,840 bcm in 2020 to 5,625 bcm in 2050. Asia Pacific region will represent the largest growth share. The reference case scenario (RCS) in the GGO doesn’t foresee any peak in natural gas demand, which is tipped to grow to 5,625 bcm by 2050 – 46% higher than in 2020. Key determinants to ensuring a resilient outlook for natural gas will be policies on air quality improvements, coal- and oil-to-gas switching and the development of carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS).
 
This abundant, flexible and clean source of energy will expand particularly across the Asia Pacific, Middle Eastern and African markets, areas that will be responsible for the bulk of future demand growth. 
 
Asia Pacific region, almost doubling its current gas consumption, will make the largest contribution to this growth: more than 45% of additional global gas volumes through to 2050, the report says.
 
The power generation sector will take a frontline place, accounting for 42% of the total increase in gas demand. The transport sector and blue hydrogen generation will emerge as significant new areas of gas demand expansion.
 
The transition to low-carbon transport systems creates a promising source of natural gas demand. Gas in the road and marine transport is slated to take off, mostly driven by increasing usage of LNG as bunker fuel and in heavy goods vehicles on the back of policy initiatives and environmental regulations.
 
Blue hydrogen generation will be another major avenue for gas demand expansion, on the assumption of mounting efforts to scale up the deployment of low-carbon hydrogen in energy systems.
 
The GGO forecasts that global natural gas production will continue to rise by an average annual growth rate of 1.2%, from around 3,840 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2020 to 5,625 bcm in 2050. The Middle East will contribute the largest growth share, accounting for almost 32% of the total change, followed by Eurasia, North America, and Africa.
 
Globally, deepwater offshore production is expected to grow strongly, contributing more than 1,000 bcm of annual output by 2050 – a nearly fivefold increase compared to current levels. In contrast, conventional associated gas is expected to decline from a 12% share of global gas production in 2020 to around 7% in 2050, as oil production peaks before falling off.
 
The share of unconventional gas is expected to rise from 25% in 2020 to 30% in 2030 before levelling off and remaining at that level.
 
Most GECF Countries will maintain or expand their gas production capacity over the outlook period. The GGO predicts that total gas production from current GECF Members will increase by more than half, reaching approximately 2,600 bcm by 2050. This translates to a 1.4% annual growth rate over the forecast period, positioning the GECF to retain its share of global gas production at around 47%.
Global gas trade will increase by 45% by 2050 and become more integrated and interrelated through the expansion of LNG trade.
 
The global gas trade is expected to grow by 45% by 2050, at 1.5% per annum between 2020 and 2050 to reach 1,815 bcm, and account for a third of global gas demand. Regional natural gas markets are expected to become more integrated, interconnected, and globalised during this period.
 
Global LNG trade will be the key driver underpinning natural gas exports, in fact accelerating even faster than the previous forecasts, and overtaking pipeline trade around 2030 to reach 845 million tonnes (1,150 bcm), it says.
 
Asia Pacific, the main destination of the world’s LNG at present and also in 2050, will represent the largest transformational challenge for the currently fragmented natural gas market. Asia Pacific enjoyed a 70% share of LNG trade in 2020, which will increase to an even more remarkable 80%+ by 2050. New countries will join the existing LNG importers predominantly from developing Asia – China, India, South and Southeast Asia. Over the forecast  period, three out of the five leading LNG
exporters globally – Australia, Mozambique, Qatar, Russia, and the US – will be from the GECF Countries, the study says.  -TradeArabia News Service
 

OIL AND GAS NEWS

QatarEnergy in deal with Nakilat for operation of 25 LNG vessels Mar 25, 2024 09:43 AM

QatarEnergy has signed time-charter party (TCP) agreements with...

QatarEnergy enters new exploration block offshore S Africa Mar 7, 2024 12:23 PM

QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies have signed a farm-in agreement with...

QatarEnergy names LNG expansion's first carrier "Rex Tillerson" Feb 25, 2024 10:44 AM

QatarEnergy has named the first LNG carrier to be delivered as part...

SAP effects Q-Chem's digital transformation with SAP Cloud Feb 21, 2024 09:38 AM

SAP a global technology company has successfully deployed RISE with...

QatarEnergy, Petronet sign 20-year LNG supply deal to India Feb 7, 2024 11:17 AM

QatarEnergy has entered into a 20-year LNG Sale and Purchase Agreement...

QatarEnergy, Excelerate sign 15-year supply LNG deal Jan 29, 2024 11:27 AM

QatarEnergy and Excelerate Energy (Excelerate) signed a long-term...